Following the M 7.1 mainshock on July 5 (local time), extensive northwest-southeast-oriented, right-lateral faulting was then also mapped...The largest earthquakes of the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence were a M 6.4 left‐lateral rupture followed 34 hr later by a M 7.1 on a perpendicular right‐lateral fault. With the appropriate computing resources, this goal is attainable, and could provide an unprecedented amount of detail and probability accuracy. USGS photograph. “It’s definitely possible to operationalize this model, and we’re looking to go that route, but it’s going to require investment,” said Milner. Immediately following the Searles Valley quake, Kevin Milner, a computer scientist at Southern California Earthquake Center and one of the lead developers of the new model, got to work, eventually generating 100,000 forecasts by 4 p.m. later that day — each with their own probability of occurrence. Even with this peace of mind, the probabilities found from this and other forecasting models make it clear that the time immediately following an earthquake is crucial. We present new 3D source fault representations for the 2019 M 6.4 and M 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock forecasting reveal comparable performance to the standard statistical counterparts...Surface rupture from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, initially associated with the M 6.4 foreshock, occurred on July 4 on a ~17 km long, northeast-southwest oriented, left-lateral zone of faulting. ), Brandenberg, S.J., Wang, Pengfei, N., Chukwuebuka C., Hudson, K., Mazzoni, S., Bozorgnia, Y., Hudnut, K.W., Davis, C.A., Ahdi, S.K., Zareian, F., Fayaz, J., Koehler, R.D., Chupik, C., Pierce, I., Williams, A., Akciz, S., Hudson, M.B., Kishida, T., Brooks, B.A., Gold, R.D., Ponti, D.J., Scharer, K.M., McPhillips, D.F., Ericksen, T.., Hernandez, J., Patton, J., Olson, B., Dawson, T., Treiman, J., Duross, C.B., Blake, K., Buchhuber, J., Madugo, C., Sun, J., Donnellan, A., Lyzenga, G., and Conway, E., 2019, Preliminary report on engineering and geological effects of the July 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake sequence: Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance Association Report GEER-064, https://doi.org/10.18118/G6H66K. J. These events occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone, near Indian Wells Valley, south of China Lake and west of Searles Valley. Science 366(6463), doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz0109 Creeping movement along the Garlock has been observed, but only at shallow depths where seismic activity is unlikely to occur (Ross et al., 2019). “Even though these probabilities seem low, the consequences of an earthquake on the Garlock or especially the San Andreas would be quite high. But, he says, over the next 10 years, it’s only slightly higher than the long-term model would predict. Feeling the ground beneath you shake and seeing the environment around you roll and rock can leave one feeling wary of what is to come next. Earthquakes are colorcoded by time of occurrence, with early events in dark blue and later events (up to the M 7.1) in dark Abstract. “Concurrent with all of the work to operationalize this forecast, we would also have to really think about the best ways to present the information in a useful way that encourages appropriate responses from the public,” said Milner. Using 13,525 routinely cataloged events as waveform templates, I detect and preciseOperational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns of triggered seismicity. On July 4th, 2019, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck to the northeast of the California town of Ridgecrest, which was a foreshock for a larger magnitude 7.1 earthquake nearby on July 5th. The Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence began with a magnitude 6.4 foreshock on July 4, 2019, followed by a magnitude 7.1 mainshock the next day with more than 100,000 aftershocks. In a recent paper published in Seismological Research Letters, scientists used a newly developed model to forecast aftershocks following this event and evaluate the likelihood that these quakes could trigger even greater shaking [Milner et al., 2020]. This kind of research and partnership ultimately can help save lives and property. For seismologists, one of the biggest goals on the technological horizon is operational earthquake forecasting. Using 13,525 routinely cataloged events as...The 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred in the eastern California shear These representations are based on relocated hypocenter catal Here the fault has about 2.6 m of horizontal displacement and 0.5 m of vertical. Photo credit: Jamie Delano, USGSUSGS scientist Jaime Delano, observes a sand blow caused by liquefaction during the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake.
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